Saturday, November 12, 2016

Musings On Trump's Victory and Hysteria (Oh, and BTW, your bodyguard just got fired.)

Let me first say that no matter who won there was going to be violence. As we're seeing now and we will see more of the same..
Having said that --unless certain things happen-- I think this country has taken a MASSIVE step away from the major shitstorm I was seeing as likely (if Hillary had won). Make no mistake, people are most likely going to die, but I don't think it will be as bad if Clinton had got into the White House.
(It's just going to be different people).
This election had some serious lines crossed. One of which is while it's been a long tradition of supporters of a candidate to hate upon each other, candidates themselves tended to keep their sniping at each other. A new trend is the candidates started talking shit about the other candidate's supporters. To the best of my knowledge, Hillary really had the lead on this. Or at the very least, she REALLY crossed the line. How much would you want someone in the office of President who deemed you "Deplorable?"
Something that most Americans don't even know is that the agencies, departments, etc, they think of as the 'US Government' are under the 'Executive Branch" (There are three branches, President [Executive], Congress and Courts.) So the bureaucracies that run our lives ARE presidential. Every time there are elections not just he heads, but the top echelons of these agencies are swept clean and new political appointees are put in place. You're talking something like 4,000 to 5,000 jobs. This SERIOUSLY affects and effects the direction the agency takes, what they focus on and how they interact with the public (e.g., what laws they enforce and/or how ferociously).
The US media and his supporters have been crowing over the goodness of Obama's presidency. Two points on that. One is generalized. When you talk about the person that is one thing, when you're talking about the Administration, you're talking those 4-5,000 people steering these agencies in the direction the president wants. Two is a little more specific. There were a beau coup bunch of people who were getting sick and tired of what they consider overreach, special interests, waste and downright encroachment and forcing things on them BY THE GOVERNMENT.
On a more personal level, they were both pissed and afraid because -- and arguably with good reason -- of the number of people who would use these conditions (and government) as their 'muscle.' This made average people vulnerable and helpless IF they stayed in the system. Stay in and be helpless or step outside and take all the hassles of that. A whole lot of people were feeling trapped.
An example of this, look at the University of Virginia Rolling Stone Rape case. Not too long ago I ran an article that asked "How involved was the Department of Education in setting up the -- and I don't like this word -- hoax?" (Hoax implies a practical joke, this caused all kinds of damage -- including Rolling Stone is likely going to be sued out of business) In my research I found fragments that indicate there was -- at minimum -- a near conspiracy. It could go up to direct manipulation to create a situation for political and furtherance of an agenda and power consolidation. It -- no lie-- went all the way up to the White House and special task force meetings held there. Once the story broke the Department of Education swooped down on UVA. Once the story fell apart, the DoE disappeared from the situation.
My summation was "Fuck due process, we want a witch hunt." How do you handle a multi-state and government backed 'conspiracy' to invoke lynch mob mentality? But you can't talk about it because you know, rape on campus is such a crisis And even if it was 'a hoax' it started a conversation.
That's just one of the things that happened under this administration's watch. It also shows the influence the political appointees have on bureaucracies and 'The Government." But most of all it is ONE example why a huge section of the population was losing faith in the government under the Obama presidency. The government was forcing it's agenda on the people rather than....
The legitimate concern was that a Hillary presidency would perpetuate the current 'agenda' And as said agenda appears to be hostile to the majority while favoring minority groups (oddly enough not necessarily ethnic BTW) -- this was a matter of concern to many. 
To the point that some folks were gearing up for either armed rebellion or civil war. This is what I think we've avoided with Trump's election. I've long been telling people to consider that the people who were supporting Trump were the ones who were STILL willing to play within the system. A dangerously significant number of them had dropped out. Most of them heavily armed, pissed and not afraid to shoot people.
I'm hoping with Trump's election those people are going to start to stand down. Stand down because the witch hunts they feared would happen under Hillary Administrations won't be happening.
Which incidentally before you buy into the hysteria and tell me about government approved witch hunts that will happen under Trump realize we're talking the difference between a) the continuation and escalation of the polices and interpretations of the last eight years vs. b ) times from 50 to 100 years ago coming back 
Times that ended 1920, 1964, 1965, 1968, 1973 -- and most recently 2015. (Anybody here want to tell women they don't have the right to vote anymore?) Times that most people don't want to bring back. We've become accustomed to these rights.
I tell you all of this because there are some other people who are seriously pissed that Trump won. Okay that's fine. There are other people who are hysterical because they think the new Gestapo is going to round them up and send them to the gas chamber. (We'll come back to this in a second) The majority of people however, have just breathed a sigh of relief that this election is over. In smaller numbers, but still a majority -- or if not a small majority then a plurality--are the number of people who are hoping the government will change directions from it's 'business as usual.'
Which is kinda what they were voting for.
In closing l mentioned the gas chamber crowd. First off, I submit for your consideration that people who believe the worst of everyone else, usually has a double dose of those same traits themselves. Second, and this is really worth considering is how much of their fear is based in they've been using the government to not just enforce their agenda, but as their goon?
"I want this. Go out and intimidate people -- and bust a few heads -- to get it for me."
For example. I have been for gay marriage since the AIDs epidemic. Why? Because as my friends were dying I saw too many people I knew, respected and loved get completely fucked by insurance companies, families of SIGs and the law standby helpless because a couple -- that had been together for decades -- weren't allowed the legal protections of marriage. (Yes, I just said "I was for gay marriage before it was fashionable.")
Am I for forcing religious institutions into performing services? Am I for hundreds of thousands of dollars penalties for not baking a cake? Am I for specialized government agencies to specifically hunt down those who don't want to participate? Not only no, but HELL NO!
Take any cause and you'll find much of the same. Abortion? Yep. For it Birth control? Yep. For it. Demanding others HAVE to pay for it? Nope. Equality? Yep. Special treatment? Nope. Against rape? Yep. Title IX tribunals? Hell NO! Equal opportunity and employee protection? Yep. To the point of where you can't fire an incompetent employee lest you get a charge of ________(fill in the blank)? Nope. The list goes on and on and on. And they all happen under the government being used as a goon. What can be originally a protection can be twisted and weaponized.
The long and short of it is though that I'm betting that a lot of people who are in hysterics right now ... well, it's not just that they've been walking past a fierce dog behind an electric fence and snapping their fingers at it. Many have actively been throwing rocks at the dog. 
Well they've just seen the fence they've been basing their behaviors has been blown down. To further the analogy, they're screaming for it to be put back up before the dog realizes it too.
Will the dog come out and bite them? Probably not. It's got other things on it's mind. Having said that, they'd better realize their rock throwing days are done. The Administration is about to change and along with it, the protection they not only relied on, but hid behind while abusing others. (Speaking as a bodyguard I can tell you about people you're hired to protect talking shit from the safety of being behind you.)
So now that the bodyguard is gone, sure you don't want to change your behavior? Like oh, I don't know, sit down and talk with people of different perspectives instead of insulting, attacking and forcing your agenda down their throat?

Thursday, September 22, 2016

Why Liberals Should Get Guns

There are lot of guns out there already. Most of them quietly collecting dust and ... if anybody asks... the answer from these dusty gun owners is 'No I don't have a gun.' In this blog, I'm not talking to folks who have them already -- whether you admit it or not.
As many guns as are out there, there are a lot of comfortable, college educated, middle class people out there as well. These folks don't have guns in their homes. They live in a nice safe bubble and have a 'that will never happen' attitude.
My concern is that bubble is likely to get popped. Something that is of particular concern to me is that these good folks do not realize what kind of shenanigans have been being built up under the guise of ideologies they sincerely believe in and support. 
As such, I kinda worry for them. Because of the shenanigans of others, I know some good folks who have a target painted on them. A target they don't know or recognize because they're not allowed to notice. 
Two points. First, I have friends across the political spectrum. Second, I have also moved away from the hardened echo chambers endemic to the coasts. 
That last comment requires some explaining. That’s because most of the people I’m reaching out to live within a two hundred miles of the coast line. To that end, let me say: Just because your lifestyle takes up all your time doesn't mean that's all there is to life. Something people on the coasts don't seem to realize is how easy it is to slip into an exclusive lifestyle that you don't have to deal with 'other perspectives.' The irony of this is it's arguably far, far worse in areas that pride themselves in their diversity.
Wait what?
This isn't a racial issue, although one can see an ideological divide that runs along similar lines. In fact, I'm going to use that example. In his documentary on racism in the UK Trevor Phillips mentioned a concept call "Sunset segregation"
I really like the idea because speaking of a complex and diverse urban area he mentions that people mix during the day, but then go home to 'their own' (by choice) at night. This allows them to maintain a distinct cultural/ethnic identity and comfort. They may work in diversity, but they live in self-imposed self-segregation. A self-segregation they actively work at achieving.
That can also apply to ideological echo chambers. You can either choose to isolate yourself among like minded people or you can have an echo chamber built around you while you’re busy doing something else -- like your career. (There are certain professions with political bias.
The more you self-segregate yourself along ideological lines, the less likely you are to realize that's what you're doing. This to the point you don't realize you're no longer leaving your 'ideological neighborhood.' It's a bit of fancy intellectual gymnastics to be parochial amongst millions
It is not until you spend time away from the coast (especially the urban corridors) that you realize exactly how much of an echo chamber those areas have become. Another shocking revelation is the pressure is to maintain isolation from other points of view there has been on you. (Le froggy has been boiled.)
Some other things you realize when you get out of the echo chamber that was built around you, are
1 - there really are other points of view,
2- that just because someone has a different point of view doesn't mean he/she is an ignorant, evil and rotten SOB,
3 - how some folks are using your 'good name' to hurt others,
4 - the growing anger against people with your 'label.'
5 - that maybe, just maybe you should start trying to ease some of the growing pressure.
I was raised a liberal and - quite frankly I still believe in values such as equality, freedom of speech, rights and breaking institutional abuses of those. (This is why I can have friends across the political spectrum.) But I've also seen enough 'good things go bad,' AND 'evil done under the name of good' to be cautious. With the folks that I'm about to tell you about, this gets me branded as a conservative, sexist, racist, privileged bigot oppressor.
Fortunately -- having been called worse (and more accurately I might add) by my mother -- I am thick skinned to name calling. (But share this around and see how much name calling there is.)
I'd like to warn my liberal friends that there's a lot of bad stuff being done to other folks under the name of liberalism. There are folks marching under that banner who are pissing off, taking other people's rights, twisting laws/policies, profiteering and flat out attacking others and claiming they are you. In a sense, this goes beyond just identity fraud. In some cases it's outright crime, violence and destruction, while screaming your name. 
I identify these faux-peace, aggressive, totalitarians as 'progressives' -- not liberals But as I said, they're using your name to attack others. ("YOU GOT A PROBLEM WITH ME? YOU &^%$#!!!! MY NAME IS _________.) 
Here's the thing, the folks they're pissing off actually believe they are you. You can be moderate and mellow as you like, but the good name of liberal has been abused by those claiming to be you and representative of what you believe. A very good parallel is these folks are the liberals' version of the Westboro Baptist Church. They aren't you, but they're twisting what you believe and claiming they are you. Far worse, they're pushing towards violence.
It's a push that is likely to blow up. How I don't know. Too many variables to accurately predict. 
But having been on the ground for a few riots and natural disasters, I can tell you how fast mobs can form and turn against you. More importantly I know how groups you thought you were sympatico with can go tribal -- and your narrow little ass ain't in that tribe. That especially applies to progressives turning against liberals. There are a lot of people who are more than happy to commit violence on their fellow citizens in the name of their ideology. (Look up ‘struggle sessions’ in the context of the Cultural Revolution.) 
I'm very sorry to say, the pressure is growing.
This is why I'm saying liberals should seriously think about exercising their Second Amendment rights to own a gun. Not because you’re planning to be part of some glorious uprising against oppression, but to keep your home and loved ones safe in case that push towards violence gets out of hand. 
As in, it comes to your neighborhood.

Wednesday, September 14, 2016

Tribes, Super-tribes and Uber-tribes

Something I am working on is explaining the human 'wiring' to be tribal and how modern society has pushed us out of our comfort zone when it comes to the 'size' of our tribe.
This is a simple concept with MASSIVE implications. 
Starting with that we 'owe' obligations/sharing/support/concern to those INSIDE our tribe. The rules of how we treat those inside our tribe are very specific. We NEED the tribe for our survival. These reciprocal tribal obligations are what kept our species alive on a planet that was trying to kill us. Yes, this is a species level survival issue. Other species went extinct, we haven’t -- because we are social primates. 
At the same time, when it comes to those outside our small tribe... well it ranges from not my problem to 'fuck them' to -- and this is the source of my growing concern -- "We're going to get those evil rat bastards." Changing tracks, I want you to understand something about an idea you take for granted. Nations are a VERY recent invention in terms of humanity. (250 years vs. 200,000 years.) Here’s another kick to the gut. The idea isn’t global yet either. But let’s look at what you were raised in in the West. We are told that as a nation we are a giant Uber-tribe. If you are a US citizen you have 324,000,000 fellow tribes people. You’ve been conditioned to accept this as ‘normal.’ 
Except there’s just one little glitch...
This is beyond most people's functional ability -- WAY beyond. Dunbar's number postulates that we can only maintain between 100 to 250 stable relationships. That is our actual ‘tribe’ (or village if you will). With a little mental gymnastics most people can be comfortable with the idea of a Super-tribe (lots of people like them). We start gritting our teeth at the Uber-tribe. Where people really glitch is when someone tries to promote the idea that the 'tribe' is global. Ummmm I owe tribal obligations to 7 billion people? Totally over the sanity horizon, for anyone not espousing it, is saying animals, trees and Mother Earth are also your tribe -- and you owe them the same obligations. 
Here's the hitch. Uber-tribes are just too big. Going back to something I mentioned in passing we can sort of, kinda wrap our heads around Super-tribes. These are imaginary super groups that we both self-identify with and label others as. In the self-identity category, this reduces the ‘uber’ to a smaller, more intellectually manageable super-size. So now instead of 324,000,000 million your Super-tribe is a tens or hundreds of millions. The four main categories we use to separate ourselves from the Uber-tribe are politics, race, religion and socio-economic.
We're more comfortable with drawing these lines between Super-tribes. But guess what? When we do that we fall into the "Us v.s. Them" mindset of tribalism. A mindset that historically had checks, balances, limits, consequences and most of all rules of behavior -- especially when it came to getting along. Rules that if you broke, people you loved died. 
This isn’t just internal rules that you followed. (Kosher and Halah food rules will keep your family from dying of food poisoning in the desert.) It’s very much keeping people you love from getting killed because of something you did to a member of another tribe. That's tribal warfare out at the sharp end. And despite the bad rap it gets, way more time and effort is spent on trying to keep from having to try to slaughter each other than killing. This is people you know and love dying.
Except now we've got a weird mix. A mix that can manifest in many different ways. One way is “Well I didn’t know the guy personally, but a member of my Super-tribe was killed by a member of a hated other Super-tribe, so that’s that.” Another version is "I want my Super-tribe controlling the Ubertribe" (with no idea of what it takes to actually run things). Then there’s folks who seem hell bent on “We’re going to force you to do what we want.” This can -- and often does -- mix with "I'm relying on the rules of the Uber-tribe to keep me safe as I spit my hate at the other Super-tribes.”
This is a bit of a problem for a variety or reasons. One of which is you virtue signal inside your own tribe for status and conformity "Those rat bastards..." “Yeah!” Allowing for the “Jungle Book” aspect of dancing and chanting of ‘It’s so because we say it’s so!’ --not a problem. This is acceptable behavior INSIDE your tribe's territory. However the rules of different tribes are different. No big surprise, but what has been lost in the Uber and Super-tribe shuffle is the rules of how those of different -- often hostile -- interact when they find themselves in proximity.
These are different still. 
This loss is not a good thing. Starting with you don't walk into a mixed environment and behave the same way you do among your own. This especially by calling out how stupid, wrong and evil the other group is. It doesn’t matter how much you believe it. It doesn’t matter how much you do it back home. You don’t do it outside your tribe because you've just insulted about six different people there who are from that Super-tribe. Oh yeah, and you ignored the effects of your word on the 12 others whose tribes are more closely aligned with the other than yours. Now as long as everyone has more invested in keeping the peace than responding, you can 'get away with it.' If by that you mean nobody throws your ass through a window (which in case you didn't know, really slices you up.) 
The problem that I am seeing is that good will is waning. More than that, because people aren't getting punched for bad behavior anymore, it's escalating. People in certain Super-tribes are getting more emboldened about their words and behaviors, more self-righteous, more hostile. While those in other Super-tribes are getting pushed towards the point where 'keeping the peace' loses priority in light of the constant stream of insults, abuse and hostility.
Which again, 'those rat bastards...'IS perfectly acceptable to say INSIDE your Super- tribe, but not in mixed company. You conduct yourself differently when you are dealing with folks from other tribes -- or, and this is something people tend to forget, in neutral territory. That may be acceptable behavior where you’re from, but in this area you don’t know how many of the people you just pissed off are armed.
Another problem that I am seeing is that punching someone for lipping off has been banned. This low-level consequence used to teach people there were lines you didn't cross unless you were willing to pay the price. Two relevant points. There are all kinds of levels of striking and reason for striking. I tell you this so you can understand the first point, a hit is the level you use for people inside your tribe whom you don’t want to hurt. The second point: Violence between different tribes often involves weapons. That’s because the intent IS to hurt. Stop and consider the implications of what I’m about to say. Lower levels of physical violence can indeed escalate. However, they more commonly serve as a safety valve. A pressure relief that would go before the boiler blows up. That safety valve has been wired shut ... and pressure is growing. Worse, it seems there are some folks out there intent on stoking the boiler. 
 I’m going to leave you with this thought. You have a whole lot of people who are out there with no idea about the nature of intra and inter-tribal violence. Many of who are apparently pushing for conflict against other Super-tribes. 
 Do they recognize what they are doing? 
Are they thinking that they are under the protection of the rules of the very Uber-tribe they are rejecting and holding themselves apart from? Are they thinking that the rules of their Super-tribe are the only rules that count? (Translated to: I have the right to do ____, but you don’t have the right to react except according to my standards. Solid example: I can scream my hate at you, but you can’t strike me for my words.) Are they willfully abusing people? This by relying on other’s preference to keep the peace instead of reacting to their goading? Are they giving themselves more and more permission to act because they’ve moved into a Super-tribe echo chamber? An environment that not only encourages, but demands they loudly ‘virtue signal’ whatever ultra-orthodoxy is in fashion at the moment? Is this a fight they think they can start and then walk away from if it gets too intense?

Tuesday, August 16, 2016

Why Civil(ian) Unrest Scares Me

I often tell people I weathered the LA Riots -- and most of them have no clue what that means. Nor do they understand why I fear mob uprisings (especially thick are those who are pushing for such uprisings).   You really do want cops keeping a lid on things and you really  don’t want to be anywhere that isn’t happening.
I'm watching a thread where anti-cop rhetoric is strong -- including singing the 'No cops! Let people sort things out themselves' song. Yeah, about that... I've seen what happens in those circumstances. It ain't pretty.
Here are some ruminations from a guy who has actually been on the ground when the shit hits the fan. Back in ‘92....
When the rioting came within two miles of my house, I spent the day sitting on my porch, smoking my pipe, reading with a shotgun on the table. To be more precise, a riot gun. Just so you know a pistol can be scary, but shotguns carry a very distinct message -- namely, “I ain’t playing.” (The survival rate with shotguns is waaaaaaaay lower than with pistols.) I wasn’t playing.
Let’s talk about ‘not playing’ What was not widely reported is on the other side of the LA  city limit lines, police from different municipalities were geared up and waiting. Mini-riots tried to break out in multiple cities in the LA area, but the local PDs -- literally -- smashed them on the spot. Meanwhile, inside LA city limits, it was the withdrawal of the LAPD that both kept the damage localized to Los Angeles and allowed it to escalate.

This resulted in looters driving into LA from other cities to 'riot.'

Here's some more grist for the mill. The LA riots, contrary to popular perception were not just a "Black thaing." They may have started that way, but at the end, not so much. LA has been described as a 3 piece suit -- Brown, Black and White. You saw Men’s Wearhouse in the rioting and looting. What is of particular interest is how the established Mexican Community very clearly said "It ain't us, it's the Salvadorians, Guatemalans and Nicaraguans” (newcomers).  Which if you watch the raw video feeds and can tell the facial differences of these ethnicities you can see the Chicano claim holds water.  The importance of this is which ‘communities’ had roots and owned homes.
At the same time, REALLY pay attention to when the neighborhoods themselves turned back the rioters.
I want to point something out. The LA Riots are considered the worst (in cost, death and injury) in US history.  Yes the LAPD lost control -- but again, the 'idea' was to pull back and let things calm down.  The hypothesis being that since the Black Community was pissed at the police, no cops present wouldn't provoke them.
(That's the official version, the actual politics of the situation were ... well, somewhat more complicated. But let's stick with the 'we're going to pull back so as not to further antagonize' version.)

Shit exploded instead.
Official numbers of the dead vary. I've heard 54, I've heard over 60. (It depends on how you count.) Over 2000 is the reported numbers injured. While some sources say 10 people were killed by the police, it is generally assumed that most of the deaths and injuries were committed by the rioters. It’s an easy assumption to make; take a look at this clip ...
(Fidel Lopez 3:10, Reginald Denny, 11:50)

Here's the issue with official numbers. They DON'T tell us how many rioters/ looters were killed or injured in/by 'neighborhoods' rebuffing them.
I tell you this because when you watched  live broadcasting of the riots, you repeatedly saw rioters being turned back by coming under fire by someone protecting their property. I can guarantee you they weren't 'warning shots.' (In Koreatown, there were snipers on the roof.)
What else is not widely reported is that when the National Guard finally did roll into town it was done in a way so as NOT to increase the body count. Yes. You heard me.
The broadcast media and helicopters flying over the city were sending the message "The National Guard is coming in at 6 pm tonight. Get yo' ass off the streets before then."
The rioters being given a chance to 'go home' -- BY THE GOVERNMENT -- is what kept the body count low.  This even though it allowed rioting to continue for another 24 or so hours. Had the national guard done what they did in Detroit, Watts and Kent State -- there would have been blood in the gutters. That’s because when troops come rolling in and someone in the mob shoots or lobs shit ... the mob loses.

I tell you all of this because there are no simple answers to this. Police cause problems. Police prevent problems. Civilians cause problems. Civilians prevent problems. But what can be clearly stated -- and needs to be understood -- is cops, unlike civilians -- have rules of engagement, limits and use of force restrictions.
Civilians don't. That’s the other way bodies start stacking up.

Tuesday, July 12, 2016

About Your Personal Safety...

This is a follow up to the "A Plea... before the bullets start flying."

Folks, in case you're wondering what my concern about rising racial and political tensions have to do with personal self-defense the very short answer is...
"It's getting crazy out on the streets."
It's not being reported. But you have a change in street dynamics and a rise in both unpredictability and aggressiveness. THAT is more likely to directly effect you than the bigger issues I’ve been talking about lately. So, now the longer answer.
This aggressiveness is not in predictable ways. I've spoken to lot of old school outlaws, criminals, gangsters and bad men. They're "What the fuck is wrong with these people?" Although it would be easy to brand it "...with these kids?" it's not just a generational issue. It's a serious, toxic mix of out of control emotions, identity- ideology, lack of understanding, 'attitude' and ... what I can only describe as ...a belief in no consequences.
First the elephant in the room and how it's mixing with another issue. There's always been racial tensions out in the street. The first riot I was ever at ground zero for was between Mexicans and Blacks. Seen a lot of ugly since then. But here's the thing, on the day-to-day running of things each side -- even if they didn't respect each other (as most people understand the term) -- they respected that the other side would shoot back. Reread that last sentence again, because it's closely tied to this: That's a great incentive not to start shit.
Now take away "Don't start shit because they'll shoot back" and replace it with "they wouldn't dare shoot back" 
That '’They’ can't or WON'T' respond attitude is B ) --the other issue. It is far more widespread and isn’t just about race. It's extremely pernicious in it's own right.
Combining the two: This means you -- and that is a direct you, not general you -- can be targeted just because of your skin color. This is not new and improved ‘institutional racism,’ this is old school racism of just blindly hating someone for their skin color or eye shape (a game anyone can play). It is the individual deciding to act against you for a whole host of reasons -- including a hatred of your skin color. He does so thinking you can’t -- not won’t, can’t -- do anything about it. He’s got himself a free pass against you. A pass that reads “Do unto those thou hast ‘Othered’ as thou will...”
Getting concerned yet? 
This belief in lack of consequences is actually the bigger problem than someone hating you for your skin color. In many cases I’ve seen this expanded to the level of ‘It’s my right’ to do selfish/illegal/aggressive/destructive /shitty/pick any combo stuff. And I do mean ‘a God given right.’ But it also goes into negative rights. That is to say, while they can say or do anything, YOU do not have the right to stop them. 
While that attitude may be offensive to you, it has much more practical -- and problematic -- manifestations. These are they have no fear about coming at you and no reason not to! They are in fact relying on your hesitation to react to keep them safe from consequences. They can run up, get in your face, scream, howl, bark and drool and you can’t do anything about it. 
Because if you do, you’re the one who is going to get arrested. 
Which brings us to the next problem. Let me give you a ‘No-BS-Reality-Break’ about “Institutional” attitudes of the police, the prosecutors and law makers. Something that is WAY bigger than racism. That is “Somebody has to go to jail.” 
I’ve long bemoaned cops as revenue generators and removal of officer discretion when it comes to mandatory arrest. But now having dealt with our court system I’ve seen first hand the prosecutorial attitude that can be summed up as “If someone died there must be a crime.” While I’ve long had serious heartburn with people carping about being “arrested for self-defense” (mostly because what they did WASN’T self-defense) over the last ten years that has become a reality under ‘Somebody hast to go to jail.’ This is not the cops choice any more, the pressure to arrest and get back out on patrol comes from above. And straight up, a big part of this is them getting the fines you will be assigned by the court in lieu of jail time. 
 Basically, short and not-so- sweet, unless you are damned good about articulation AND stayed in boundaries of self-defense, you will go to jail if you defend yourself. This means street rats know they can fly off the handle without fear of consequence -- because if YOU react -- they’ll be the ones calling the cops on you. Do not think this doesn’t effect their willingness to go off on you. 
The problem with dancing this close to the edge is it’s both extremely easy to go over it anyway, and a whole lot of them just don’t give a shit. Their hatred and rage is more important than not going to jail -- so they will physically attack. Now let me toss another shovel full onto the shit pile. Remember I said OGs, elder outlaws and the like are saying “What is wrong with these people?” It’s not just that there’s no respect for the rules and how you do things, there’s a growing trend of not even knowing these exist. Sound like a vague, hypothetical problem? Try this... 
When you find you’ve miscalculated or crossed a line and are looking down the barrel of a gun, how do you back out of the situation without getting your brains blown into a fine pink mist? 
 Now maybe in your lifestyle this isn’t much of an issue, so not knowing how to do it isn’t a big thing. But back in the day, it was part of the whole ‘respect that they will shoot back’ package. Looking down the barrel of a gun means although you’ve crossed a line, the guy is giving you a chance to change your behavior. As such, it’s probably a good idea not to continue with the behavior that resulted in that view. 
Not getting shot really wasn’t something you used to have to talk someone through in the old days. But these days it is. These self-righteous, ‘I have the right to/you don’t have the right to stop me’ types are at a complete and total loss about what to do when someone does stop them. I’m talking total bewilderment because it’s never happened before. You literally have to talk them through the process -- especially reassuring them that backing off is safe. You need to factor in both they don’t know how to back off and their fear that if they do, you’ll kill them. I’m not joking when I say “You need...” 
(In case you’re wondering what I’m talking about, try this, “If I was going to kill you no matter what, you’d be dead by now. Here’s the deal. I’m giving you a chance to walk away and live. If you do that I won’t shoot. You do anything else though... Now what’s it going to be?”) 
Remember that shovelful? Well it’s time to add a wheelbarrow. While I’ve always been a big fan of having multiple force options (verbal deescalation, crime avoidance, empty hand, knives, guns etc.) never before has having ALL of them been so important. 
Okay, granted that given my career and lifestyle choices I needed to have them all to handle the wide variety of things that came my way. I’ve never been a “Les jes’ bash ‘em onna hed” type or “Prep for Road Warrior conditions” type. I say this despite having been in bad situations that have kicked off. I mean beyond gang wars and shooting bad -- like rioting, looting and burning buildings. So that has never been off the table for me. 
 But things are getting crazy out there. To the point that you are much more likely to run into something than you were before. The question, and it’s a big question, is: What degree will it be? 
I can’t answer that. And until you’re in the situation neither will you be able to. The level of what you’re going to be running into is impossible to predict. Hence the need for a full spectrum of options -- especially the lower end. 
 Wait... what? 
I am the first to point out things have not kicked off -- and hopefully they won’t. But that puts you between a hammer and anvil. On one hand, there’s increasing tensions, hostility, violence and craziness. On the other hand, that means you’re going to be dealing with the aftermath and consequences of violence under existing circumstances. That is to say a system that will try to nail you if you are involved in an incident. Yes the system is designed to nail bad guys, but it’s gotten to the point that -- because of over-prosecution -- self-defense is becoming functionally illegal. Not a good thing with rising tensions and increasing incidents. 
 I’m recommending really honing your de-escalation skills, do everything in your power to not get into situations, and meet certain criteria so your actions support your claim of self-defense. (Like you tried to walk away. And why did you stop? Because it wasn’t working.) Now that may sound odd, but in fact, it’s going to help you in a lot of different ways. First is you will have made a good faith effort to keep it from going sideways. Second, surprise surprise, good faith efforts really do work to keep shit from happening. (This should be your goal anyway.) Third, you’ll understand when it’s not working. Fourth, that knowledge will assist you to mentally shift gears to an alternative strategy. (Nope, not working, Plan B). Fifth -- and this is where it sounds counter to common sense -- often you prepping to go will cause the guy to change plans. (Remember the ‘talking him through not getting shot?’ This is where it applies.) Sixth, knowing that de-escalation didn’t work, you’ll have a much cooler head when it comes to scaling force. Seventh, when you are ‘called upon to answer’ for your use of force decision, you’ll be better prepared to articulate WHY -- even though it was violent -- what you did wasn’t illegal, but was in fact, self-defense. 
 All of which go miles for you not getting hurt or arrested. Like I said, it’s getting both crazy and nasty out there, this calls for a different level of preparation than just bangy bangy or punchy kicky.

A Plea... before the bullets start flying

Congratulations, you smeared distinctions to create a bigger political block, raising an inclusive banner to seem to present a unified whole for your cause. Good idea right? After all, your PR to create and identify a large, unified group to the outside world worked. Except now everyone else can't tell the difference between you and the troublemakers pulling shit under your banner. 
Any group is going to have extremists. It is both the nature of groups and a systemic weakness they can exploit. That last is to say using the same rhetoric and ideas, they push things too far. It’s hard to stand up to such folks because they are using the same words, terms, rhetoric, ideals as you and that -- this is important -- you believe in. But they’re throwing in a bunch of toxic twists. Twists, that if you dare challenge, they’ll turn their fury on you. They’ll blame you, accuse you of being a traitor to the cause, a sell-out and do everything in their power to silence you or get the group to turn against you. This ratpacking and bullying is a very real factor inside groups. Often what happens is people don’t stand up to this hijacking and pull back to a smaller circle inside the larger group. They quietly self-isolate inside the larger group where they can stick with their interpretation of what the cause is about. In the mean time, the extremists are given free reign to twist agendas, rampage and cause mayhem. 
 Let's talk credibility. Often you're now being viewed as same level as the worst of your 'unified' group and/or judged to be dishonest. By that last I mean by not condemning the actions of extremists (acting under your label) you appear to support or agree with them. You may think saying, "Well that's not real _____(fill in the blank)" is enough of a distancing act from you and the troublemakers, but it's not. Remember that ‘we’re unified’ for political power? Well while it may not have worked for political power, it sure as hell worked for creating an “Us vs. Them” environment. And that puts you in both categories. 
You may think being in an ‘Us’ group empowers you, but there’s a whole lot more people who are looking at you as “One of Them.” First off, your little distinction game is up against a massive, decades long ‘We’re all one’ campaign -- that worked. Second, that distinction is seriously weakened if you’re using the same terms, rhetoric, and ideology -- if not same basic tactics (but toned down) -- as the extremists. This includes standing there mutely while they rampage in your name (that unified ‘Us’ thing again). 
I fear we are coming close to a point where -- if we all don’t start doing something -- the extremists will kick shit off. I don’t care which ‘Us’ you self-identify with. We ALL need to start pulling the leashes of the extremists in our own groups -- and very much be seen doing so. Not just so other ‘Thems’ see you doing it, but people in your own group who have been bullied and cowed into silence about this out-of-control extremism will see you doing it and stand up too. 
And a big part of that is reaching out to the moderates. Open lines of communications outside your own echo chamber. Moderate, reasonable and willing to work with other people still exist. The world is not filled with crazies. Nor are the only sane and reasonable people you and the less extreme people in your group. 
This brings us to a bit of a hitch. One of the words I hear a lot of is ‘listen.’ As in “Would you listen to what we have to say.” I’m a big fan of listening. But I have a question: Are you listening too? 
Listening is a two way street. And while we’re at it, communication is a lot more than just someone else shutting up and listening to what you have to say. Where things really go overboard is when someone not only demands that you shut up and listen, but equates ‘listening’ with you having to accept what they’re saying as unquestionable truth. When this is what is meant as ‘listening,’ any questioning, much less disagreement with what the person is saying means you’re not listening (and are by default, now part of the problem). This is an extremist tactic, and it is often used as the excuse to attack -- or bully. That last is because this is the same tactic used to intimidate people inside the group. As things are developing, we’re moving past the point of the attacks just being verbal... 
 When you are listening you have to set your own priorities and interpretation aside and try to figure out where the person is coming from and why they think that way. Listening includes asking for reasons, facts and perspectives. It does not mean accepting conclusions or disregarding your reasons, facts or perspectives. In other words, listening doesn’t mean automatically agreeing -- especially if the whole process is filled with buzzwords. (Part of the problem with the ‘we demand’ approach is they mix reasons and facts with conclusions until they become one homogenized mess. A combo of conclusion and cause that cannot be questioned). If you disagree with someone’s point, don’t rush to interrupt with why they’re wrong. Ask questions to get them to clarify. What do they mean by that. Why do they believe that? What perspective are they looking at it from? (Example, if you look at certain circumstances from a humanistic perspective you’ll get one answer. If you look at the same circumstances from business, law enforcement, economic or anthropological perspective you’ll get four completely different types of answers.) 
Before you start filtering what you’re hearing through your perspective, try to understand the validity of the interpretation from another perspective (why it looks like that way to that person). It may not be the whole picture -- but from a particular perspective, it can look exactly like what they are saying. Then start running it through your filters and see what the same situation looks like. But you’ve done this after you’ve listened to the other side. This is how communication happens. A lot of what are very real problems have wide ranging and complex contributing factors. But you’ll never know these reasons unless you’re willing to listen.

(Oh yeah, here’s a free tip about getting people to listen to you and something I touched on before. Don’t use the same lingo as the extremists are -- especially just before or while they are attacking. It’s that whole, people can’t tell the difference between you and extremists if you’re both using the same language thing.)
I fear we are coming close to a point where the extremists will kick shit off. My primary concern is a whole lot of innocent people getting caught in the crossfire, And by that I mean people who have nothing to do with your cause or others. (In case you missed it, this gives people who aren’t involved in the ‘cause’ reason to stand up and tell those in the cause to knock it off. Unfortunately, history shows us both who suffers the most and where letting extremists run unchecked leads.) Now the bad news for you, if you march under a banner, if you promote a cause and the shooting starts, you're not going to be considered innocent by those shooting back. The police might view you as such, but not the people your extremists open fire upon. You're part of the group that's shooting at them, which means you're a target.
This is why I am pleading with people -- why I am begging you -- not just to withdraw support from the extremists, but to stand up to them and tell them stop trying to hijack your cause. Call them on their hatred and bad behavior. Don't stand by and let them attack others using your position, cause or group as their excuse, for their hatred and violence. Don't support them, don't defend them, don't excuse their behavior (especially if it's the very thing you're against) but most of all don't think that "No True Scotsman" is going to be enough to keep you safe if the bullets start flying.

Tuesday, June 21, 2016

“‘The Good Guy With a Gun’ Myth is BS” called into question.

I was not happy when I found out that there had been a three-hour delay when the shooting started at Pulse Night Club in Orlando and 'SWAT storming the building' -- especially in light of the 911 call that started caroling, "ISL Daesh is coming to town!"

(New info, it now appears that the initial reports were wrong. Police had control over a majority of the building within minutes after the shooting started. Marteen had retreated to a smaller enclosed area, was cornered and that's where he was when SWAT took him out three hours later. Still for anyone trapped in there with him ...  well, what I'm about to say still applies.)

My grumbling drew some criticism including being told, "Shame on you!" (Wow, that's a new one.) But from that I had a major realization about why the "Good guy with a gun myth is BS" has always made my teeth itch. And here is the ammo to shoot back when someone tries to use it.

Let's start with a few points:

A - There are times when all your choices are terrible.

B  - Building on that, a friend of mine pointed out that when you assume a leadership position you have to stop thinking in moral-based terms and start thinking in result-based terms. (For example, the military took over from the FAA the day three planes crashed into buildings killing thousands.
Let's say you're the strategic air commander that day. All other aircraft have been landed, but you have still have one up in the air. There are innocent Americans on that airplane, but it's off course, heading for DC and not responding. What do you do ...?) This is the true meaning of lesser of two evils. You must make a choice -- usually the option that saves more lives. Make no mistake even if you make the best call possible, it's still terrible. In these  kinds of cases, by your decision, people are going to die. Knowing that, these decisions still MUST be made.

C  - I am often accused of being a cop apologist and utterly pro-cop by cop haters. But actual apologists and pro-cop types don't like the fact that I point out problems with modern policing. (And believe me, there are lots of them.)

D - I am aware of the difference between LEO and military goals, Rules of engagement (ROE) and restrictions. And that is a huge and complex issue. Part of what makes it complex is the policy (which under many different circumstances actually works very well) of the police falling back from engaging, creating a perimeter, and letting the negotiator take over -- until the negotiator unleashes SWAT (including the negotiator tricking the guy to step in front of a  window).

E- I'm really not advocating cops storming in without a plan and dying like flies to save people's lives. Officer safety is a really big issue and -- quite frankly -- my concern for it is what gets me accused of being pro-cop by cop haters. And yet we do have to balance out officer safety with public safety -- especially  the survival rate of those trapped in with or wounded by terrorists. You  want ultimate officer safety? Hit the club with a missile. Oh wait, wrong ROE...

F  - Here's the problem. You have two competing doctrines -- and I cannot stress this enough -- BOTH WORK. With the caveat that both can fail miserably as well.  Fast recap of those ...
Now  a little birdie might have told me -- once upon a time -- that there is a fundamental difference in responses between a crime that goes sideways and ends up with hostages, barricaded individual with hostages versus an active shooting event -- especially when mixed with terrorism. In the former, you bore  them into surrendering. In the latter, quick reaction time is critical especially in light of a common tactic among terrorists is to  pretend to negotiate while:
a) further entrenching themselves
b) increasing the death count by denying medical treatment to the wounded and
c) setting bombs and traps in preparation for the breech
Which call to make is an absolute MUTHA of a problem and I do not envy the commander who has to make such a decision.

G  - The world is changing. I live about thirty miles as the crow flies from Columbine High School. That event changed the rulebook about dealing with active shooters. And quite frankly the argument, trying to fix the problem is still not settled. But now a new player is on the scene  Terrorism. Yes we had 9/11 and the response has crushed the old-style terrorist system. Pretty much gone are the days of the big terrorist operations, 9/11, Beslan, Moscow Opera, Madrid train bombings. But that's created a different problem. As was  described to me, in destroying the big organizations we created a situation where terrorism has survived as 1,000 miles wide and a quarter of an inch deep. That is the 'supposed lone wolf' or active shooters. I say 'supposed' because ... well it's not quite that simple. But what they are is really cheap to pull off and almost impossible to stop preemptively. Literally for under a $1,000 an organization can send out these lone wolf shooters to pop up anywhere there's crowds. These kinds of attacks are becoming if not more common, a very real factor. Fort Hood, San  Bernardino, and now Pulse.

H- So which doctrine do you follow -- LEO or anti-terrorist -- given that this happened on U.S. soil? That is NOT an easy  question because you're talking people dying here.

I  - It's time to talk about the elephant in the room. That is making a call means career and political suicide. A door kicker isn't thinking about politics or the media when making decisions. But a civilian authority who has to make the call is.

J- With that in mind, I can pretty well guarantee you every decision made was covered by and justified by policy. This includes the three hours ...

It sucks, but there it is.

About one of the people who objected to my grumbling. A  self-identified 'door kicker' argued that the three-hour delay between when the shooting started and when SWAT stormed the building is not only understandable, but is in fact damned good response time. It was that he was hostile and insulting is what got him a less than pleasant response from folks. But here's what I have to say to the people who got bent out of shape with him ...

I don't disagree with him. In fact, I actually agree.

It takes time for personnel and equipment to arrive. (Like getting SWAT and  the Bearcat there). It also takes time to plan an effective raid. ALL of which are true. But what is also true is how fast the call for these goes out and when the order 'to go' is finally given influences the time between when an incident starts and when it ends.

Straight  up, I don't question the door kickers or blame them for the three hours. (Besides who doesn't want to rip down the freeway at 80 mph in an armored vehicle at 2 am?) I might want to have a discussion with the guy who appears to have not wanted to cry havoc and let slip the dogs of war.
But the door kickers? No. Never.

That is not, however, the point of this.

One  of things that I talked about in my booklet, "Writing Violence IV: Defense" is the importance of time in a violent encounter. I argue that guns are a distance weapon that rely on time and distance to ensure the shooter's safety. But they are in fact not so hot for blocking or deflecting an incoming attack. Unless you shoot someone just so in the brain pan, death is not instantaneous. Usually immediate incapacitation doesn't happen either (unless specific criteria is met.) It's usually the distance that gives the bullet time to take effect. Basically his leaking way over there messes up his aim and lessens the chance of him getting close enough to be accurate with his return fire-- thereby  keeping the shooter safe. It doesn't necessarily mean he's dead, it means he's incapacitated. If he's shot, the same bleed out issues apply to him as to the people he's shot.

Understanding that sets a  base for this: About ten years ago, I had an ER doc tell an entire class that if someone with a single gunshot wound got to him within two hours he'd have about an 80 percent survival chance. Now that is dated information about triage and gunshot wounds. Triage has improved since then, and I  don't know what the current survival rate is. But I'll bet you twenty bucks it hasn't gotten worse. That being said, multiple GS wounds obviously make it harder, but still ...

So bottom line, everything else aside, when shot your survival strongly depends on help getting to you ASAP. If there's still an active shooter in the immediate area (or it's turned into a barricade situation) that is going slow down help getting to you. And it turns out -- straight from the words of a self-identified door kicker -- three hours is a damned good response time for SWAT to come busting in.

Stop and think about that -- especially if you're one of those in need of medical help.

Not too long ago in a Planned Parenthood Clinic (PPC) in Colorado Springs you had a mass shooting -- arguably a situation started elsewhere -- but the  shooter took refuge inside the clinic and it turned into a five-hour standoff. Was his target the PPC all along or something else? (There  are still questions because the shooting started outside.) Interestingly enough, it appears that the early exchange of gun fire derailed the 'plan' and gave people time to escape so the clinic was mostly empty when he went inside.

I give you the Colorado Springs PPC example, but I'll throw out the question of: How many of these situations turn into stand-offs? Stand-offs that can deny the wounded immediate medical attention?

As I thought more about the "three hours  is good response time" statement, the idea came to me that time had raised its  head again. But this time in regard to how fast or slowly people get medical attention.(I should also mention the indications that there were people inside Pulse getting other people out factored into my  thinking.) Then it hit me ...

A strong contention --  read knee-jerk screech -- by the anti-gun crowd is the "good guy with a gun myth is BS." Or worse, "that there has never been an instance where an armed civilian stopped an active shooter." Then my all time favorite -- people shooting back at a shooter increases everyone else's danger.

Few points about those
a- The first is using a very specific definition of 'good guy' -- specifically not police, security, military, or federal officers. (Face it, cops, guns, dead shooter is the result of almost all of these.)
b - is a dismissal by calling it a myth
c - if not factually wrong, are unsupported contentions.

Here's  why. A blanket claim of BS (or it's a lie) is easy to say -- especially  with conviction. But it doesn't provide supporting credible evidence to the contested point or support one's position that shooting back doesn't work. In fact, it's kind of an appeal to authority -- except the  authority is the speaker. "It's bullshit because I say it is so," which, face it, is a better tactic than copping to parroting what you heard someone else say.)

I've spoken elsewhere about the  distinction I make between active and mass shootings. (Everyone is a  target versus specific targets). Also something else I talk about is how  most active shootings are ended via a gun -- whether the shooter is shot by others or suicides. (A big factor in the latter is target denial.)

The second  contention of 'never stopped by a civilian shooting back' is just demonstrably wrong.

The  third contention of higher casualty rates and Wild West shoot-outs is where we have to lift our hands and say, "Wait a minute. Maybe yes. Maybe no. Possible but ..." That's the one I really want to look at.

Here's the basic question. What's going to create more casualties? Three hours before SWAT comes in or more bullets in the air?

And more bullets in the air comes in one of two forms. One is an unopposed active shooter shooting more people. Two is somebody shooting back (and thereby creating a two-way shooting range).

Except this time we also have to ask, "Despite there being more bullets in the air does shooting back buy time for others to get out, much less get others out, as well? This even if the person who is engaging the original shooter goes down too? Or hell, maybe the guy shooting back gets lucky and the original shooter is now on the bleed out team. The point is that we don't know which of these choices is going to result in the fewest deaths.

Remember I started out by pointing out that sometimes all the choices suck? Well, it's back.

Three hours or more bullets in the air? Personally, I'm not a cheerleader for either option. What I am flat out against, however, is the demand that everyone be forced to wait for three hours against avowed terrorists or active shooters.

The truth is I'm not arguing for everyone to carry a gun. Personally, I hate carrying a firearm as a  day-to-day thing. It's not something that is practical given my current lifestyle. Ordinarily I'm not in danger nor operating in dangerous  environments, so I don't usually feel the need to be armed in this manner. But it is a choice that I make. I do not insist on others making  the same choice -- or being forced to be disarmed.

If someone wants to carry a gun that's his or her choice. The key word here is choice.

Now the flip side of that argument. I am a big fan of property rights. If a business owner doesn't want guns in his or her store or a homeowner doesn't want them on his or her property -- that's  their right. It's been both upheld in court that your right to carry a  gun doesn't extend to other people's property or trump the Federal Gov's ability to say 'no guns on our property or in schools for minors.' Now how different states handle guns in businesses that sell booze is another can of worms.

But the constant in all of those is you DON'T have to go there. (I will for the record state that I am  seriously bothered by pro-gun people who go on about 'mah right rawr  rawr' and insist on going armed into businesses and onto properties posted for no guns. No, it's not your right and you're pissing on the rights of others. On the plus side, most of them are only putting their concealed permit in danger. But personally, I think insisting on carrying in such places is just tacky.

If someone chooses not to carry a gun, well good on them. Congratulations on living a lifestyle where that is a viable choice. But if you do, kindly do me a favor and don't demand that everyone else be disarmed, too.

Because in  light of that three-hour delay before SWAT comes crashing through the  wall (followed by medical help) your supposed concern about 'more bodies' if someone shoots back is a little ... problematic.