Will he use that weapon?

A doctor friend came up with the term 'Internet Intelligence' Short version, someone who doesn't have the scientific, technical or educational background reads something on the internet and says, "I understand this subject." No, you don't. Because if you did, you'd know why what you read on the internet is out to lunch.

In my line of work I have a similar problem in that people ask 'simple questions' without having the background understanding. Specifically of why, that's not a simple question. Nor is there a simple answer.

I was asked about a home invasion robbery and the guy asked how do you know if the guy is going to use his weapon -- even after you've complied. Simple question right? Should have some simple things to look for right?

No.

Short answer, it depends.

And huge parts of what it depends on is what you do -- and more importantly -- DON'T do. Because your version of 'complying' may involve you pogo-sticking on your dick.

Here is the long answer
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The answer to this is in a weird and different direction than you might imagine.

Ever seen a movie where you know what is going to happen before it does?  Hell just for laughs, I used to predict when the standard clichés in action movies would happen. Usually within 15-30 seconds of them happening.

Some fast yada, yada, yada points. First, no reflection on your sex life, but every night you go to bed with a human, a monkey and a lizard. These are the three levels of your brain. The Monkey is your socio-emotional conscious brain. It tells us how to act, how to behave and what is expected of us given our social status. For the record most 'violence' comes from the Monkey http://www.conflictcommunications.com/
and this is very important for recognizing the presence of the Monkey http://www.conflictcommunications.com/monkey_is_in_the_building.htm

That's one set of background to help you understand this statement -- The Monkey LOVES stories.

In fact, scripted, roles, stories and predictable social rituals guide an overwhelming majority of our interactions with other people.

Another yada, yada. Fundamentally there are two different 'types' of violence. Social and asocial.
http://www.conflictcommunications.com/Socialviolence.htm

Different types, different goals, different reasons. Social violence can be broken into many different categories (rule enforcement, status displays, monkey dance, educational beat down, etc). A simple, but important concept is this kind of violence is over things you can't put into a wheelbarrow. You can't put your pride, feelings or social status into a wheelbarrow. But that's what a lot of social violence is about.

Asocial violence can be broken down into two main categories -- resource and process.  Resource violence is either over gaining or protecting tangibles. These are things that CAN be put into a wheelbarrow

Two critical points about both social and resource violence. One, they usually come with instructions how to avoid it. These instructions are simple and non-humiliating (although we often interpret them as such). Take for example 'shut up or I'll kick your ass.'  All you have to do to keep from getting your ass kicked is stop talking. However, people's Monkey often tell them that the best response to that is mention the guy's testicles on his mother's chin.  Notice this is NOT following the instructions on how to avoid violence.

Two is that these 'scripts' are incredibly predictable. The problem is most people don't know the script OR they try to apply another script to the situation (this includes what I call violating 'the five'
http://www.nononsenseselfdefense.com/get_attacked.htm )

Predictability in resource predation is easy. That's because the criminal is operating along certain guidelines. Take for example in the US, during the commission of a felony forcing a person to take even one step is kidnapping. Kidnapping is as seriously prosecuted as murder. So an experienced robber isn't going to tell you to go to a secondary location. The 'script' for a robbery is he approaches, threatens you, you give him the goods and he leaves.

Anything that goes 'off script' is where things can-and-do go bad. There are however, two main ways things go off script and violence happens.  

First is keep your fucking mouth shut. Your Monkey is going to want to talk shit to this asshole to show him who he's dealing with and to get your pride back. I know of no better way to get shot in the face than lipping off to a guy with a gun. And if you think about it, you know it's stupid. But, the Monkey will be screaming at you to do it.

(BTW, Rory Miller is correct in his assessment of the Five are critical elements in the de-escalation of social violence, but they don't work to deescalate asocial violence. He is correct with his observation that the five won't stop asocial.  #1 Asocial violence cannot be deescalated, it can only be deterred. #2 Violating the five WILL however, make asocial violence much, MUCH worse. Want to know the fastest way to provoke a robber to use his weapon? Insult him and show your contempt.)

The second way things go wrong is when the guy with the weapon starts going off script. One of the absolute worse 'this isn't going according to script' is telling someone to move to a secondary location.

Short version... no frickin' way do you let that happen. That's kidnapping. And if he's going to get charged for that, why not...?

Which brings us to process predation. The 'other' asocial violence. Unlike other types of violence, with process, violence IS the goal. With the others, the threat of violence usually is way more effective. Follow those instructions and no violence. With asocial, those instructions are a lie. Asocial is the big bad monster everyone fears. But in it's own way it's just as predictable and easy to spot when that's what you're dealing with.

Final dada, dada. There can be overlap with these. A process predator can be hiding his shit under the guise of social violence. Or he can be hiding it in resource. It's how much of a 'mix' that is the important thing to spot. Venn Diagrams can give you the idea of how they can overlap.

Home invasion 'robberies' are bad news. First, they're breaking the script of how robberies normally happen. Second, they're already in a secondary location -- a particularly isolated one. So you're a whole lot closer to bad shit happening, not because you do  anything wrong, but other way.

Thing is home invasion robberies are the new and big boogie man -- especially among the shooting world.  Many are pressing the idea 'you need to have guns every where in the house.' One tacit-cool cowboy really stepped on his dick by suggesting having a gun safe in the kids room -- with reporters in the room. (I have a totally different set of problems with this idea because, I don't believe in drawing fire towards the people I'm trying to protect ... DUH!)

Copula's points about home invasions, yes they are really bad news. Yes they do happen. And yes, they are a primed for shit to go really bad.

Oddly enough people who are most likely to have them happen are drug dealers -- and this includes your kids doing shit they shouldn't be doing. Then people from cultures/ ethnic enclaves that don't trust banks or the cops (e.g. merchants who keep large amounts of money in their homes). Then you get follow homes from the stores and nighttime invasions. But for the average person in a nice neighborhood? Not that likely.

And BTW, if you're really concerned, it's really easy and cheap to get a camera/intercom/doorbell unit. Gee there's three dudes standing on my porch... probably shouldn't open the door.

So how do you know if the guy is going to pull the trigger? Well the short answer is it's going off script.

The problem is that most people don't have any other resources except to follow the script. Or they fuck up and try to use social scripts -- including 'fighting'. Those are really fast ways to get the guy to use his weapon on you.

M